DA from January 2020 is estimated in this article, after All India
Consumer Price Index for 11 months declared already by Govt (January
2019 to November 2019). We have assumed AICPI for December 2019.
Trend of All India Consumer Index from January 2019:
After an unprecedented increase in the month July 2018 from 291 to
301, All India Consumer Price Index (Base 2001=100) remained at the same
level till December 2018. However, from January 2019, the index
increased steadily and it is now at the level of 325 as on October 2019.
Month wise All India Consumer Price Index recorded from January 2019 to October 2019, is as follows.
| Month |
Actual AICPI-IW |
| Jan-2019 |
307 |
| Feb-2019 |
307 |
| Mar-2019 |
309 |
| Apr-2019 |
312 |
| May-2019 |
314 |
| Jun-2019 |
316 |
| Jul-2019 |
319 |
| Aug-2019 |
320 |
| Sep-2019 |
322 |
| Oct-2019 |
325 |
| Nov-2019 |
328 |
| Dec-2019 |
Not released |
The above data (Actual index from January 2019 to November 2019) and
assumed index for the remaining month at higher, equal and lower levels
than the present consumer price index suggest following Four
possibilities.
1. 4% increase in DA from January 2020,
even if the assumed index for December reduced by 11 points in each
month (total decrease of 20 points)
2. 3% increase in DA from January 2020, if the index decreases by 12 points in December 2019
4. 5% increase in DA from January 2020,
only if All India Consumer Price Index as on December 2019 increased to
347 at least from the present level of 328.
The above 3 possibilities are discussed in detail as follows:
1. 3% increase in DA from January 2020:
This Scenario is almost confirmed as to get an increase in DA lesser
than 4% from January 2020, consumer price index should decrease more
than 11 points December 2019. From the calculation table given below,
even if Consumer price index decreased to 317 from the current level of
328, Central Government Employees and pensioners would get an increase
of 4% in Dearness Allowance effect from 1st January 2020
| DA with effect from 1st January 2020 |
= [ (307+307+309+312+314+316+319+320+322+325+328+317)/12]-(261.4)X100/261.4 |
|
= 21 % (increase of 4% w.e.f January 2020 from the present DA of 17% ) |
2. 3% increase in DA from January 2020:
Chances of Central Government Employees getting 3% increase in DA
from January 2020 or lesser than 3%, is very remote as the index will
have to decrease by 12 points in the month of December 2019
| DA with effect from 1st January 2020 |
= [ (307+307+309+312+314+316+319+320+322+325+328+316/12]-(261.4)X100/261.4 |
|
= 20 % (increase of 3% w.e.f January 2020 from the present DA of 17% ) |
3. 5% increase in DA from January 2020:
More than 4% increase in Dearness Allowance with effect from January
2020, is almost remote, since the index will have to increase to 3477 or
more from the present level of 328 during November 2019. Though,
Central Government Employees and Pensioners were granted 5% increase in
DA with effect from July 2019, the same may not be possible this time as
suggested by consumer price index data.
| DA with effect from 1st January 2020 |
= [ (307+307+309+312+314+316+319+320+322+325+328+347)/12]-(261.4)X100/261.4 |
|
= 22 % (increase of 5 % w.e.f January 2020 from the present DA of 17% ) |
