DA from January 2019 – All India Consumer Price Index for both July 2018 and August 2018 recorded at 301. Now that it is almost confirmed that DA from January 2019 can not be less than 12% (3% increase from July 2018)
CPI for the month of July 2018 witnessed unprecedented 10 point increase – Highest monthly increase in CPI index (Base 2001=100) witnessed earlier was 7 points in the month of July 2009
Govt
has released All India Consumer Price Index (Industrial workers) for
the Month of August 2018 now. It could be seen that there is no increase
in CPI in the month of August 2018.However, due to phenomenal increase in Consumer Price Index to the extent of 10 points in July 2018, still there are lot of chances for DA for Central Government Employees reaching 12% and above with effect from January 2019.
Historical data reveals that out of consumer price index for the period from 2005 to June 2018, highest monthly increase in the index was recorded in the month of July 2009 which was 7 Points.
We have attempted to estimate the DA from January 2019 for Central Government Employees and Pensioners based on assumed Consumer Price Index for the months from August 2018 to December 2018.
Estimation : DA from January 2019 will not be less than 12% (3% increase in DA with effect from January 2019)
| Month | Actual AICPI-IW |
| Jan-2018 | 288 |
| Feb-2018 | 288 |
| Mar-2018 | 287 |
| Apr-2018 | 288 |
| May-2018 | 289 |
| Jun-2018 | 291 |
| Jul-2018 | 301 |
| Aug-2018 | 301 |
| Sep-2018 | To be released |
| Oct-2018 | To be released |
| Nov-2018 | To be released |
| Dec-2018 | To be released |
| DA with effect from 1st January 2019 | = [ (288+288+287+288+289+291+301+301+301+301+301+301)/12]-(261.4)X100/261.4 |
| = 12 % (increase of 3% from the DA of 9% w.e.f July 2018) |
If we assume a moderate increase of 1 point in Consumer Price Index for the period from September 2018 to December 2018 in each of these months, then DA from January 2019 will be 13%, which is 4% higher than the current level.
| DA with effect from 1st January 2019 | = [ (288+288+287+288+289+291+301+301+302+303+304+305)/12]-(261.4)X100/261.4 |
| = 13 % (increase of 4% from the DA of 9% w.e.f July 2018) |
It could also be seen that DA from January 2019 may not be less than 12% (3% increase in DA) even if Consumer Price Index decreases by 2 points during the months from September 2018 and December 2018
| DA with effect from 1st January 2019 | = [ (288+288+287+288+289+291+301+301+299+297+295+293)/12]-(261.4)X100/261.4 |
| = 12 % (increase of 4% from the DA of 9% w.e.f July 2018) |
The following DA Calculator will be handy to check the above DA Calculation.
